24 Sep

How Will the Zig-Zag Theory Affect The Sports Bets?

The zig-zag concept explained header

The zig-zag theory is a straightforward wagering strategy that’s existed for nearly 40 years. Essentially, the desperation that arises from fear of losing the next game (and/or show) frequently provides a pivotal jolt toward group that just suffered a loss.

For that reason, the zig-zag concept advocates to bet in the team who just lost their past game, as they are more likely than maybe not (50%>) to rebound and win the following one. Chances on group that just lost will favor the “sharp” bettor.

Momentum frequently shifts during 7-game show, and also the zig-zag concept is a vintage handicapping method developed to exploit this. We’re planning to plunge into utilizing it in your favor and explore some moneyline and ATS data relating to the zig-zag theory.

In which Does the Zig-Zag Theory Originate From?

Conceived by legendary sports handicapper Tony Salinas, the zig-zag theory shows that every game in an NBA or NHL seven-game show is affected by the game that precedes it. Salinas thought that oddsmakers didn’t properly account for this (when producing their lines for games within a string) and they put excessively emphasis on factors like house court advantage.

Whenever Salinas devised the zig-zag theory, he intended for that it is placed on the NBA playoffs. Not too long following its inception, other “sharps” unearthed that equivalent concept of gambling on loser regarding the previous game (as well as the ensuing energy shift this wrought) could be used much like the NHL.

How can the Zig-Zag Theory Function written down?

The principles of the zig-zag theory affect any show who has a 2-2-1-1-1 structure.

Before 2013, the NBA finals were played in a 2-3-1-1 setup. But many thought your lower-seeded group was presented with an unjust benefit by playing the 5th game on the house court. The NBA finals have reverted with their initial 2-2-1-1-1 framework since 2013.

Some handicappers apply variants regarding the zig-zag concept toward NFL and MLB, nevertheless the zig-zag theory has far less relevance in these activities than it does within the NBA additionally the NHL, because of the 2-2-1-1-1 framework. It merely doesn’t have the same effectiveness whenever removed from that context.  

The Zig Zag Theory and NBA Playoffs

Now that you’re acquainted the basic concept that underlies the zig-zag concept let’s view some analytical applications.

Home court benefit means a lot inside NBA. NBA home groups win 64.5per cent of that time period, versus 55.3percent within the NHL. Due to this advantage, wagering lines will often considerably prefer your home team, especially if they winnings Game 1. Over the course of NBA history, road teams whom lose initial game win Game 2 slightly over 34per cent of the time.

The zig-zag concept house and away home team data

Just because the home team is more likely to win Game 2 doesn’t suggest there is certainlyn’t value for bettors. 34per cent isn’t a negligible number in the slightest! As the most bets will go towards the home team, there’s tremendous chance for betting on a conference occurring over 1/3 of the time.

The implied possibility of chances connected to the road team winning Game 2 will reflect a significantly lower percentage than 34percent. Historically, there is a solid tendency for overreacting to one game loss.

Even when the street team is dealt an ugly and embarrassing loss on your way, it cann’t always dictate that most hope is lost is due to their Game 2 opportunities.

Zig-Zag Theory Statistics

Let’s take a good look at some aggregated data of teams rebounding from losses in the NBA playoffs.

If the road team upsets the home court favorite and wins Game 1, 76% of times, the home group can come back once again to win Game 2. Don’t get fooled by an early upset.

In Game 2s, regardless of the details associated with the matchup, the group that destroyed the prior game will cover the spread on their next game 56percent of the time.

As soon as the home favorite is 2-0 and plays Game 3 on the road, the lower-seeded underdog usually shines if they return to their property court. Historically, they have a 65per cent win looking for the moneyline and a 68% winning portion contrary to the spread. Both outcomes occur around 2/3rds of that time period, a notably high rate.

Historically, preferred groups whom lose their final game by four points or maybe more are going to win from the spread in their next game. The record of groups inside situation is 98-69 (a 58.7percent winning portion)!

These statistics are outstanding starting point, however the zig-zag concept should be considered in context. It’s always up to you to determine if you think there’s value on a specific line into the NBA playoffs.

The Zig-Zag Theory and NHL Betting

Throughout the NHL playoffs, the smartest time for you to apply the zig-zag theory is whenever you bet on a group to avoid a sweep.

A lot of the time, the team wanting to avoid getting swept will win Game 4. After starting a 3-0 gap, 3-1 is more common than 4-0; getting swept isn’t as typical in the NHL as you might think. Since the first NHL lockout in 2005, teams in a 0-3 gap have actually a 25-20 record (55.5% winning percentage.)

Groups down 0-3 and whom perform Match 4 in the home have gone 16-12 (a 57.1per cent winning portion), while teams in the same place on the way have gone 10-7 (58.8% winning percentage.)

Obviously, the group poised to sweep may very well be greatly well-liked by your sportsbook. Bookmakers could have all of the appropriate statistics at your fingertips, but lines are relocated by oddsmakers to produce equal wagering volume on both sides. It could be extremely hard to assume a group who’s destroyed three straight matches to effectively regroup.

Never underestimate what a really desperate hockey group can accomplish in pressure of removal though! Most of the public doesn’t investigate the data underlying sweeps, and therefore, they’re more likely to bet on the group that won the prior four games.

The Zig-Zag Theory Is An Element Of The Puzzle

We don’t suggest putting way too much faith inside zig-zag concept in isolation. Use your recreations knowledge to form your own unique inferences and conclusions about a team’s opportunities. Stay current using the latest sports data, along with damage lists and mentoring adjustments.

Every series and each game within a set varies. The concrete and intangible facets of a specific playoff show will factor into every single game, however the exact same goes for luck.

Like most sports gambling strategy, the zig-zag theory should only be one tool within repertoire. There definitely isn’t a surefire methodology to be a fruitful bettor: about wagering on activities, success always requires dedication, research, experience, and knowledge.

Meet the authors

Matt McEwan
Dave F.
Sports Writer
William Hill
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