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Just how to place a March Madness Upset: 4 integrated Trends

While it’s simple to predict that there will be chaos within the bracket annually, it’s plenty harder to identify where the chaos will arise. Can there be in whatever way to identify March Madness upsets-in-the-making with 100percent precision? Naturally not. But considering past results, there are certain identifiable traits and styles that are contained in an alarming quantity of NCAA Tournament upsets.

Here are the four trends our research has identified.

NB: in this essay, the expression “Power Six seminars” means the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.

1. Fade Mid-Majors with a Top-Five Seed

Throughout the last six years, mid-majors that get a top-five seed happen upset at a startling price, especially the people perhaps not named Gonzaga.

In the last six tournaments, 13 non-Gonzaga mid-majors have received a top-five seed. Six of these lost in the 1st round. Six more lost within the second round, and every one lost up against the spread (ATS), besides.

Year Mid-Majors with a Top-Five Seed March Madness Outcome Rating Distribute
2018 # 2 Cincinnati Lost to number 7 Nevada (Round 2) 75-73 -4.5
2018 # 4 Wichita State Lost to #13 Marshall (Round 1) 81-75 -13.0
2015 no. 5 Northern Iowa Lost to no. 4 Louisville (Round 2) 66-53 +2.0
2014 # 5 VCU Lost to #12 Stephen F. Austin (Round 1) 77-75 OT -5.5
2014 # 5 Cincinnati Lost to #12 Harvard (Round 1) 61-57 -3.5
2014 # 4 Hillcrest State Lost to number 1 Arizona (Sweet 16) 70-64 +6.5
2014 no. 5 St. Louis Lost to no. 4 Louisville (Round 2) 66-51 +9.0
2013 number 5 VCU Lost to # 4 Michigan (Round 2) 78-53 +3.0
2013 number 5 UNLV Lost to #12 Cal (Round 1) 64-61 -3.0
2013 #4 St. Louis Lost to #12 Oregon (Round 2) 74-57 -3.5
2012 # 5 Temple Lost to #12 USF (Round 1) 58-44 -2.0
2012 number 5 Wichita St Lost to #12 VCU (Round 1) 62-59 -8.5
2012 # 5 Brand New Mexico Lost to no. 4 Louisville (Round 2) 59-56 +1.5

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Matt McEwan
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